November 18, 2017

Argentine Submarine San Juan Likely Sunk With All Hands

On Friday, 17 November 2017 it was announced the Argentine submarine ARA San Juan had not been heard from for over 48 hours. San Juan was in the southern Argentine sea 250 miles from Argentina's Patagonian coast when it sent its last signal on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 (Partly based on Wikipedia). Specifically San Juan last reported in when it was en route from the Ushuaia naval base to the Mar del Plata base (where Argentina's submarine force is home based).[8] 

The search and rescue operations had been launched some 220 miles southeast of San Jorge Gulf.[7]  The initial search and rescue operation was carried out by the destroyer Sarandi and the corvettes Rosales and Drummond, supported by two S-2E Tracker surveillance aircraft.[9] A US P-3 Orion maritime patrol plane (equipped with a magnetometergravimeter, and other sensors) has joined the search[12] and the UK has offered assistance in the form of a C-130 Hercules based in the Falkland Islands.[13]

Brazilian website http://www.naval.com.br/blog/2017/11/18/ara-san-juan-aeronave-p-8a-poseidon-da-us-navy-vai-auxiliar-nas-buscas/ advised on 18 November 2017 that US military Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) directed the US Navy to deploy Poseidon P-8A multi-mission maritime aircraft to Bahia Blanca, Argentina, on 18 November to search for San Juan.


Through an Argentine news site https://www.elsol.com.ar/el-papa-alienta-los-esfuerzos-para-hallar-el-submarino-perdido Pope Francisco, who is Argentinian, encouraged efforts to find San Juan.

There are at least 44 people on board San Juan.[10] Among them is Argentina's first female submarine officer, Eliana María Krawczyk.[11]

COMMENTS

Generally and unfortunately submarines that have been "lost" for 2 to 3 days have sunk with all hands. Likelihood of it being sunk is partly because there are so many means of commmunication on a submarine, to indicate its "alive" including:
-  several types of radios that work to satellites (eg. US Government satellites and Inmarsat) and/or to
   Argentinian or foreign naval base stations
-  even in the unlikelihood of all radios failing San Juan could indicate its position by "pinging" its 
   active sonar(s) to maximum volume. This is a useful means of indicating a submarine's precise 
   position to listening "passive" sensors (eg. on naval ships) that are even hundreds of miles away.
-  when surfaced the submarine could fire flares and turn on its navigation lights day and night
-  when surfaced the submarine could activate military versions of  Emergency Position 
   Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs)
San Juan, if it can surface, can always contact passing surface ships, fishing boats or coastal 
   towns/villages 

ARA San Juan (S-42) is a TR-1700-class enlarged German TKMS designed derivative of the Type 209 conventional diesel-electric submarine.

Even though San Juan has had extensive upgrades its hull is old as it was completed in 1983. This means that the hull would be rusted/corroded and may suffer metal fatigue. It would have a more limited diving depth than when it was new.

Other than unintentionally diving too deep to crush depth a submarine can "sink" for many other reasons, including:
-  collision with the seafloor or a hard rock, with an iceberg or with a surface ship
-  crew mistakes in upsetting the buoyancy of a submarine can also be fatal
-  fire, explosion, flood or escape of poison gas can also occur due to malfunctioning of a sub's
   lead-acid batteries or torpedo propellant or warheads.

It is most likely that the Argentine Navy and Government knows the exact track of San Juan and what has likely happened to San Juan. But getting divers or a deep submergence submarine to San Juan on the seafloor may cause most of the delay. Also strong winds are now delaying search and rescue efforts. Then the Government will make the difficult step of announcing San Juan's fate.

All that pessimism aside I hope the crew of San Juan have survived.


Offshore and just south of the square on the map on the left is where ARA San Juan last reported its location 3 days ago. (Map courtesy Research Gate). 
---

ARA San Juan in happier times. (Photo courtesy Argentinian Government).
---

Pete

November 17, 2017

Chinese, NK & Russian Designed Submarine Propulsion

After much frustrating work I've decided to steer away from tabulating propulsion information on Western designed submarines. This is due to the vast amount of conflicting information, from numerous, already existing, written sources.

Seeming conflicting information is partly due to:

-  There frequently being more than one diesel generator in a given sub – with the customer
    frequently deciding on the total number of diesels and their total power.

-  Put another way, different customer countries use different diesel generator, motor and AIP power
   outputs.

-  There are cruising speed/power "red lines" (surfaced, snorting and fully submerged) which, 
    if exceeded, could cause overheating over certain periods or excessive wear and shorter lives
    of engine parts.

-  Maximum diesel generator power output may be twice or more of the minimum.

-  Diesels may be run far lower than capacity – to reduce noise.

-  Essential use of diesel in snorkeling mode will likely reduce power output by 20%.

-  Diesel generators and the electric motors have different power output due to reduction gear or
   PSMS particulars.


-  Battery and/or AIP use has variable impacts on motor power output.

Much more interesting and useful is focus on the small amount of information on Chinese, North Korean and Russian designed submarine propulsion mixtures.

Pete

November 16, 2017

The Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Rises Again

Australia's rising naval power (epitomised by the 2 LHDs and 3 AWDs) is being paralleled by its participation in the strategic Quadrilateral concept. The other 3 Quadrilateral members are the powerful maritime nations, US, Japan and India.

The Quadrilateral's prime purpose is to contain China's strategic expansion in the relatively newly labelled region "Indo-Pacific" (see map below). Within the "Indo" (Indian Ocean) Chinese surface ship and submarine visits have risen sharply in the last 5 years. China has also established a naval base at Djibouti, Africa, facing the Indian Ocean.

Within the Pacific China is of course building militarised South China Sea islands and bilaterally courting or pressuring, some Southeast Asian nations (Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia and Malaysia). China may argue that this activity is all part of its oil-gas trade route One Belt One Road Initiative but the raw uncompromising militaristic flavour of China's advance demands containment by other Indo-Pacific countries.

The US, Japanese, Indian and Australian members of the Quadrilateral will most notably interact in naval exercises, but also quiet diplomatic meetings continue between them. 

If Trump had not dumped the TPP negotiations the Quadrilateral countries might have also formed a powerful economic grouping within the TPP. Instead the Chinese led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is proving successful while the TPP proposal collapses.

To make the Quadrilateral work Reality Twitter Trump needs to foster consistent US leadership.

As in 2007-2008 China may yet flex its economic muscles to break the Quadrilateral (the weakest link unfortunatly being Australia).

The Indo-Pacific Region, an expanse that well fits containment of China by Quadrilateral nations: Japan, India, Australia and the US.
---

Pete 

November 15, 2017

Indian Admiral Lanba Visits French Barracuda SSN Project

An interesting report of November 12, 2017 from Sandeep Unnithan has inspired facts and thoughts:
 
-  Admiral Sunil Lanba Chief of Indian Naval Staff visited the Naval Group (was DCNS) submarine
   yard at Cherbourg, France, in early November 2017. Admiral Lanba was given a detailed
   presentation on France’s new SSNs, the Barracuda class. The first, the Suffren, is due to be
   launched soon.

-  Naval Group is also building six Kalvari class Scorpene SSKs for the Indian navy at Mazagon
   Docks, Mumbai under a 2005 contract. 

-  Naval Group is also competing for the much delayed six AIP SSK Project 75I. If Naval Group wins
   Project 75I Naval Group may just possibly agree to technology transfers from the Barracuda in
   several respects:
   :  influencing the hull shape of an improved, larger Scorpene for Project 75I
   :  the pump jet and K15 reactor used in France’s Triomphant class SSBN and soon to be launched
      Barracuda class SSN may influence India's SSBNs (to fire K-4 SLBMs in the 2020s) and
      influence India's 6 SSN Project (in the 2030s)

As well as visiting France’s Naval Group I would guess that Admiral Lanba has recently been leading Indian delegations to visit shipyards of the other remaining Project 75I competitors, which are:
-  Germany’s TKMS
-  Sweden’s Saab, and
-  Russia’s Rosoboronexport/Rubin Design Bureau

The Suffren, first of the French Barracuda nuclear propelled attack submarines (SSNs) sports a paint job indicating 1 of 4(?) torpedo hatches and the bow sonar (?) The launch ceremony will probably be in late 2017/early 2018. (Photo courtesy AFP and Naval Group).
---

Pete

November 14, 2017

German/Italian U-212A/Todaro Class TABLE - 1st Attempt

Below is my first attempt at a German/Italian U-212A/Todaro Class TABLE. Much needs to be added and corrected (especially for "Batch 3" and what may be built for Norway and Poland.

What do you think?

Country
Type/
Name
Pennant No.
Number Built
Propulsion
Advances
Problems
Germany
U212A Batch 1
U31-U34
1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW 
Larger than Type 206, has AIP, 5 more HWTs


U212A Batch 2
U35-U36
1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW



U212A Batch 3
U37-U38
 S187-S188
 2
 ?


Italy
Todaro Class Batch 1
1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW
Larger than Sauro Class, has AIP, 1 more HWT


Todaro Class Batch 2
1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW



Todaro Class Batch 3
S530-
S531
 2
 ?


Norway?
 U212A
 ?




Poland?
 U212A
 ?





The German TKMS Type 212A. Model courtesy Revell Shop Germany.

Pete

November 13, 2017

Japanese Safety Standards for Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) Use

In setting lithium-ion battery (LIB) Safety Standards Japan thoroughly tests land, ship and submarine LIBs. Above see a drop impact tester (on left) and vibration tester (on right). Photo courtesy Japan Industry News.---
Anonymous commented about Japanese Industrial Standards on lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for ships. These Standards have requirements and recommendations on LIB safety. 
[What are some examples of some Japanese maritime LIB safety standards by code and numbers? For more general Japanese Safety Standard for LIBs see subheading “Legal regulations in Japan

Pete has found a reference to NDS F8016B, NDS F8016B is not a safety standard, but it is a example of a Standard for Japanese submarines using LIBs. NDS F8016B sets down rules to minimize stray magnetic fields created by LIBs. From the first Soryu Mark 2 (27SS) an extra 240 LIB cell modules may be placed in the space where the old Soryu Mark 1’s AIPs LOx tank assembly was.

Specifically 240 comes from Japanese Ministry of Defence Standard NDS F8016B “General rules for design of equipment with small stray magnetic field”, 5.3”Arrangement of main batteries for submarine” which specifies that submarine generally equips with directly connected 240 single cells as a group.] 
Safety analysis tools for risk reduction measures age equipment using LIBs include:

-  Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
-  Safety Integrity Level (SIL)

Risks of LIBs for submarine are often pointed out. But submarine operation and maintenance involves many risks.
For example the practice of rectangular “sunroof” hull cutting on Collins submarines (scroll 2/3s way down on this 2016 SubMatt article) to service diesel-generator sets) involves risk of fracture when Collins dive deeply. In fact the RAN leadership have limited maximum Collins diving depths because of the risks of extensive hull cutting.
It could be that the possibility of a submarine sinking caused by rectangular hull cutting is far higher than the risk of LIBs failure.
Anonymous's Article and Pete's comment in [...] Brackets

November 10, 2017

November 2017 Donor Report: The IUSS in the Pacific & Indian Oceans

Hi Donors

I've just emailed you the 
November 2017 Donor Report: The IUSS in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

IUSS is the American Integrated Undersea Surveillance System.



Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

Regards

Pete
Director

November 9, 2017

Australian Tribunal Permits Naval Group To Bar Any Chinese & Russian Employees

Submarine Matters has long expressed concern about submarine companies that operate in Australia employing current or former citizens of China. See the last paragraph of SubMatt’s 2015 article.

This concern is more widely held as an interesting article of November 8, 2017 by Tory Shepherd, State Editor of Adelaide’s Advertiser, reveals. This is a small portion of the Advertiser article. I have added the links below:

“Ruling means submarine designers Naval Group can stop Chinese, Russians from getting work

THE winners of the $50 billion Future Submarines project have been granted freedom to discriminate against certain nationalities to protect top-secret information from spies.
The exemption from discrimination laws means French designers Naval Group will be able to reject job applicants from countries including China and Russia, stopping them from getting on to the Osborne site.
...Now, the South Australian Employment Tribunal has granted Naval Group immunity from the Equal Opportunity Act, which usually stops companies discriminating on the basis of nationality.
The tribunal found it was in the public interest to grant the exemption because without it, SA might lose some work on the 12 submarines being built for the Royal Australian Navy.
... [Shortfin] will use combat systems from the US. The US has a list of banned countries [including Russia, China, North Korea and Iran] within its International Traffic in Arms Regulations...."

November 8, 2017

US Report that India is Revealing Russian SSN Secrets to US Navy

One can tell this Akula II is INS Chakra from the India naval ensign flying above the fin/sail and probably (?) the badge on the front of the fin/sail.
---

The US government may have provided information that India is breaking a nuclear submarine (SSN) technology agreement with Russia. If so, this may be a US attempt to drive a wedge between India and Russia. More specifically it may reduce the chances India may lease a second Russian SSN and reduce the chances of Russian assistance to India on future indigenous Indian SSNs, SSBNs and their SLBMs.

On November 7, 2017 US website Strategypage reported Russian suspicions that India is violating the INS Chakra (Akula II ex-Nerpa SSN) lease agreement. Russian authorities suspect India is revealing some Chakra nuclear submarine technology details to US naval personnel. Russia has attempted to prevent such "snooping" by stipulating that a Russian naval officer be aboard INS Chakra at all times.

Strategypage goes on to report:

“Russia is also believed to suspect that a growing number of Indian naval officers have become so dissatisfied with Russian ships and poor Russian workmanship and repairs that they might pass details of [INS Chakra] the Akula II India already has to U.S. Navy officers they work with.”

COMMENT

My searches so far haven't unearthed Indian or other US information to support Strategypage's  (India violating Chakra lease agreement) report. Some details of Strategypage's report might have been inserted by the US Government as a small part of a campaign to cause political, strategic and economic friction between India and Russia.

BACKGROUND 

The US is increasingly courting India, in part to separate India from Russia (India's largest supplier of arms). The US also wants to sell India several civilian Westinghouse nuclear power reactors to supply electricity. Russian company Rosatom (see same article) is a nuclear power reactor competitor to Westinghouse.

In August 2017 a continuing US/Boeing desire to sell F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to India was reported. Such US aircraft may eventually replace many of the Russian MiGs and Sukhois fighter/attack aircraft that India has been buying for decades.

India financed the completion of a Russian Akula II SSN Nerpa in the 2000s. Nerpa became Chakra on lease to India in 2012 (see right sidebar).

For several years India has expressed interest in financing the completion of a second Akula II (Project 971). Russia might then lease this second Akula II concurrently with INS Chakra or it may be delivered to India once Chakra's 10 year lease expires in 2022 (or a few years later).

At one stage India even hoped to lease one of Russia's late model Yasen SSNs. Russia quietly rejected this as Russia has too few Yasen SSNs to spare and Yasen technology is considered too sensitive to share with "lease" customers.

FURTHER COMMENT

Continuing Russian supply of weapons to India would be opposed by many in the US Government. But others would look forward to access to the latest Russian weapons' technological details once Russia sells or leases these weapons to India.

Pete

November 6, 2017

Pete working in Adelaide in Next 12 Months?

An Air Warfare Destroyer being built at ASC, Osborne, Adelaide. From the road I saw Nuships Brisbane and Sydney under construction. Ship/submarine building is Adelaide's (only promising?) manufacturing growth industry. Phote courtesy Sydney's Daily Telegraph.
---

I've just been in Adelaide for 2 weeks to judge whether it a liveable city to move to.

My likely job(s) would be to continue to research submarine political and overview technical issues (especially Collins Upgrade and Australian Future Submarine) and supply talking point briefs to submarine businesses.

Likely move to Adelaide in next 12 months.

Criteria/issues in searching where to live includes:

1.  Cost of housing. Housing + carspots large enough to host long or short term guest(s) who are
     French or Australian.

2.  Easy access from house to Osborne (improved motorways/roads/rail helps)

3.  Nearby/accessible shopping centers and other retail services.

4.  Would learning French be necessary or are Naval Group and French contractors intending to use
     spoken and written English only?

5.  Interesting that Adelaidians cannot seem to access better submarine information using local
     hardcopy sources than is already available on Internet (accessible anywhere). For example
    Reuters and the The Australian seems far better informed than what seems Adelaide's local
    newspaper The Advertiser.

6. Yet Adelaide's only growing manufacturing sector seems to be ship/submarine building.

7.  Aim that Submarine Matters would continue - with shorter articles.

Pete