August 21, 2014

More of INS Arihant Revealed - Strategic Update


Revealed on August 20, 2014 is INS Arihant's conventional sail, supporting diving planes, The sail is similar to US Ohio Class and Russian Delta class SSBNs. The small hump for SLBMs aft of Arihant's sail indicates a limited missile carrying capacity underlining Arihant's main role as an experimental testbed rather than being a fully armed SSBN. 

Information is mainly drawn from http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/ndtv-exclusive-this-is-ins-arihant-first-made-in-india-nuclear-submarine-578949?curl=1408597764 and my knowledge of Indian subs since 2009 with many previous articles on this blog concerning Arihant..

Published on August 20, 2014 is the first clear image of INS Arihant, India's first indigenous nuclear-powered submarine. It may initially be armed with 12 750km-range K-15 (Bo-5) SLBM or four larger K-4s with a 3,500km range. The image above is a still from this NDTV news report .
Arihant is the first of a class of three nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines with a displacement of 6,000 tonnes. Arihant has a Indian-Russian designed-and-built 83MW pressurized water reactor. 
This earlier image on this blog after Arihant was launched on July 26, 2009, gave little away (being highly touched up). Whereas the above photo clearly shows the distinctive 'hump' aft of the sail, where the ballistic missiles will be housed. The sail looks very similar to the sail of Russian Delta class SSBNs. Arihant appears to have a much better integrated missile hump than the Deltas and China's Type 094 SSBN.

The performance of SSBNs are critical for strategic stability in the region. If an SSBN is noisy (as the 094  presumably is) it will be easy to track. Excessive noise may not provide assured second-strike capability against an adversary. If Arihant is initially armed only with relatively short-range weapons such as the 750km K-15 missile, it would need to operate dangerously close to Pakistan's or China's home waters, thus making Arihant vulnerable to ASW resources. Arihant would be especially vulnerable if it has to move through narrow straits, like the Strait of Malacca, to get to Chinese waters. The longer-range K-4 missile has been tested from an undersea platform but is years from being operationally deployed on Arihant.

The nuclear sub design evolutionary process was particularly difficult for the US, Russia and China involving many test nuclear subs. As the UK and France received direct or indirect assistance from the US their evolutionary stages were far briefer involving fewer test subs. Much of the money India paid to Russia to modernise India's other nuclear submarine INS Chakra (the ex Russian Nerpa SSN) was for Chakra. But much of that money has also cross-subsidised Russian assistance to accelerate Arihant's development. A good strategy.
Like other key strategic weapons systems, Arihant is being jointly developed by the Indian Armed Services and India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). It is highly likely that Russian advisers are assisting with Arihant's development (especially with the reactor and also SLBM launch  techniques).


Connect this Arihant article with the first Arihant article (INS Arihant Launched July 26, 2009 http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2009/08/arihant-indias-first-homebuilt-nuclear.html ) written on this blog days after Arihant was launched.

Pete

6 comments:

A said...

Hi Pete,
I completely agree with u that Arihant is more of a testbed rather than being fully armed SSBN.But from my sources what i get to know is that it could be in the future be made available as an SSN armed with maybe 12-16 Nirbhay SLCMs(1200kms).Also there were some indications that IN was/is interested in Barracuda SSN desgin &technology.

Pete said...

Hi A

Interesting points. The Nirbhay http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirbhay cruise missile is approximately the size of the K-15 so as many as 16 might be carried in Arihant's existing vertical launch tubes or even through Arihant's 6 533mm torpedo tubes.

A 1,000-1,200km Nirbhay range may be sufficient to hit Islamabad from safe waters - noting the K-15 range is inadequate for that.

Alternatively a 12 x K-4 missile compartment plug could eventually be retrofitted to Arihant to give Arihant the range to hit Chinese targets from the Bay of Bengal.

India may indeed be interested in French Barracuda features for an India's future SSNs (and for Arihant). In terms of India financing it this could be cross subsidized from India's possible future MMRCA purchase of French Eurofighters and more likely from project 75 (6 x Scorpene purchase). Noting that there is a precedent of France rolling Barracuda SSN technology into the 4 Scorpene + 1 SSN contract with Brazil.

Pete

A said...

Hi Pete,
Thanks for d reply.
What u say is true that K-15 SLBM range is inadequate but that range (750kms) is for when it carries 1 ton Nuclear warhead. But in actual combat time if it is actually going to the war (which i really doubt) then most likely it will carry a 500kg nuclear payload that will increase its range from 750kms to about roughly 1200-1500kms. But that is hypothetical i guess.
What u say about cost being cross subsidized is correct regarding French's Dassault purchase.That is one of d reason DCNS showed its Barracuda SSN at the DefExpo for tge same purpose.
India did exactly this sort of thing with INS Vikramaditya purchase when it allowed the purchase price to be inflated so that it can conceal the consultancy fees for ATV Program.

A said...

Hi Pete,
Off topic but i thought i could share it with u regarding IN's P-75I Program.
Firstly i think the whole P-75I program is pure BS.Why the hell would any navy in the world operate 2 different kind of SSKs in a modern world.The IN always wanted to operate only Type 209 SSK but the GoI (Congress) forced it to purchase Kilo Sub from Soviets bcoz they were getting huge money from KGBs (espcly. Gandhi family & Congress). It totally destroyed the IN's planned Submarine program by the politicians.
According to me IN should order 3 more Scorpenes.
India should collaborate with France/DCNS to make a bigger Scorpene Sub (about 3000t-4000t) it will help reduce cost as well as be less service maintenance. Also it will be easy for Indian Shipyards to manufacture bcoz it will not have to learn about new sub design.Also IN submariners will not have to learn everything from scratch.Also all the tooling & machineries will be quite similar to Scorpene of P-75 Type.
Whats' ur take on this Pete? I will appreciate ur POV on this messy issue.
Sorry for bothering U ;-) ......

Pete said...

Hi A

On the now simultaneous P-75 (Scorpene) and P-75I (HDW214? Scorpene? S-80? or Russian Amur-Kalina class) selection processes. I agree its illogical that India may come out of these processes with two different SSK types.

This is also in addition to the Kilo SSKs India already has.

Actually expanding the Scopene to 3,000-4,000 tons would be difficult for India and France and would create a new submarine type with new capabilities.

India would be better off building 6 extra standard size 2,000 ton Scorpenes under P-75I making the SSK force a logical-rational all Scorpene force eventually when the Kilos are retired.

Pete

Pete said...

Hi A

Its true that a smaller K-15 warhead (even down to 300kg is possible) would permit sufficient longer range to hit more distant targets (especially Islamabad). The published one tonne calculations would assume a decent throw-weight for a K-15 conventional warhead.

Yes cross-subsidization is rarely admitted in India or indeed in Australia. One reason is normal security. Another reason is that government's don't want to admit to their public how much weapon system's cost.

The development cost for India's SSBNs (including Arihant) and SSN's would be very high. The reactors and nuclear warheads would be the most expensive items with their cost cross subsidised by India's (presumably) unpublished nuclear sector costs.

Using the inflated INS Vikramaditya cost overrun to cross-subsidize the ATV-Arihant class program also occurred to me.

Regards

Pete